You’ve heard what Madison has to say, and now it’s my turn. And I’m always right. Here are my picks for the 2009 Oscars, and no, I didn’t base them on Nate Silver. Remember these are who we think should win, not who will win, although sometimes they’re bound to line up.

Best Supporting Actor

Ledger. No question. But also no need to go into a paragraph long rant about how awesome the Joker was. He was awesome. Enough said.

Everyone needs to shut the **** up about Josh Brolin in Milk. Everyone is saying that it was the most “nuanced” performance of the year, but I saw Milk, and there was nothing inspiring about him at all. We get it, he’s sexually confused and kind of a sociopath. But that just involves a lot of grunting and sweating.

I’m happy to see Downey Jr. nominated out of nowhere for Tropic Thunder, though Heath Ledger has a better chance of walking on stage to receive his award than Downey does of winning it.

Best Supporting Actress

People should not get awards for playing themselves, therefore Penelope Cruz should not win for playing Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona.

Everyone is proclaiming Taraji P. Henson should win for her role as Brad Pitt’s adopted mom in Benjamin Button, but I don’t recall her being particularly remarkable in the film at all.

I guess it’s not really fair, but I want Amy Adams to win even though I didn’t see Doubt because A) I love Amy Adams and B) she should have been recognized more last year for her role in Enchanted.

Best Actor

Rourke really is the only option here. Penn was pretty good in Milk, but it’s just the wrong year. Plus he already won like nine Oscars not that long ago. Or one. I don’t remember.

Mickey Rourke carried The Wrestler on his back, much like Daniel Day Lewis did in There Will Be Blood last year. That’s not an insult to the film, but in movies like this, you won’t usually see a Best Picture nod, because Best Actor is enough.

Brad’s best role to date, Langella knocked it out of the park as Nixon, but it’s Rourke all the way.

Best Actress

Ugh, even though I spent the last month downloading all the “awards” movies I never managed to see ANY of these. The buzz is around Kate Winslet more or less because she’s been screwed over six times, but it’d be funny to see Anne Hathaway steal it out from under her.

I actually have The Reader downloaded on my computer and I have two free hours tonight, but I just can’t bring myself to watch another WWII Holocaust-ish movie. I just watched Schindler’s List and Defiance like two weeks ago. Wait, she gets naked in it? Hmm, well I supposed I could give it a shot…

Ultimately I’ll go with Winslet for the sole reason that she did a rather funny and self-depricating bit on Extras where she bitches about how she’s never won an Oscar. Yes, this is how I make my picks.

Best Director

Danny Boyle will win, but I really want to see Fincher take it for Button. I’ve been a fan of his for some time, and I’d love to see him honored here since there’s about zero chance his film will take Best Picture. To be fair, I like Danny Boyle as well, so it won’t be a shame when he gets it. Although I think the “run really fast with shaky cam” shot needs to be retired pronto, as it’s been employed by drug addicts, zombies and poor children in his last few films.

Plus I think if Fincher stays away from Panic Room 2, he’ll end up with a statue at some point.

Best Picture

Just kidding. But seriously, The Dark Knight. Ah well, my rant tank is completely empty on that one after a month or so of yelling about it, so I’ll just deal with what we’ve got.

Without a doubt Slumdog Millionaire will win, and I actually am alright with that. I’m not as blindly enamored with it as everyone else is, but honestly it wouldn’t kill us to have a (somewhat) uplifting movie win for a change.I mean what are the other options? The embarrassment of an ex-president, the assassination of a gay leader, a guy who gets dementia as he grows into a child and the Holocaust. Awesome.

It would be a cool snipe if Button somehow took it, but it won’t, and this will be the most unsurprising Oscars since, well, last year.

I’m really only watching to see Zac Efron and Hugh Jackman’s dance number.